El is predicting 48 seats for the Democrats and Independents, and 52 seats for the Republicans. If Orman wins and caucuses with the majority party, that will make yield a total of 47 seats for the Democrats and Independents, and 53 seats for the Republicans and Independents.
The individual probabilities for each state as predicted by El are as follows:
And in non-graphical form:
Alaska
Sullivan 56% chance of winning
Begich 44% chance of winning
Arkansas
Cotton 86% chance of winning
Pryor 14% chance of winning
Colorado
Gardner 77% chance of winning
Udall 23% chance of winning
Georgia
Perdue 87% chance of winning
Nunn 13% chance of winning
Iowa
Ernst 68% chance of winning
Braley 32% chance of winning
Kansas
Roberts 37% chance of winning
Orman 63% chance of winning
Kentucky
McConnell 95% chance of winning
Grimes 5% chance of winning
Louisiana
Cassidy 95% chance of winning
Landrieu 5% chance of winning
Michigan
Land 5% chance of winning
Peters 95% chance of winning
New Hampshire
Brown 30% chance of winning
Shaheen 70% chance of winning
North Carolina
Tillis 24% chance of winning
Hagan 76% chance of winning
Adding all these seats together gives us the following results for the elections. While there are some ties listed, in the prediction, any ties go to the one with any lead whatsoever. The easiest way to do this is to only look at the short term prediction. In the following chart, a "1" signifies that the state is predicted to be won by the Republicans. A "0" signifies that the state is predicted to be won by Democrats.
Finally, we want to look at the sums of all these numbers together with the states that either aren't up for election this year or are considered safe seats by both the Democrats and Republicans.
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