My new Senate model is finished! All the data has been updated and the programming is done. So without further ado, here is the results produced by the model:
As you can imagine, being a Democrat, I don't like the output of the model.
Each vertical line represents the probability that the Democrats will hold that number of seats if the election were held today. But remember, the Democrats need to hold 50 seats to be able to retain control of the Senate. And as this model shows, the most likely outcome is for the Democrats to retain only 49 seats.