Saturday, September 27, 2014

SanityIID Senate model for September 27, 2014

The Republicans are coming! The Republicans are coming!

After updating the SanityIID Senate model with the latest polling data as reported from the HuffPost Pollster, the statistics show that the Republicans have expanded their lead this week.

The chart shows that the most likely scenario is for the next Senate split to be Democrats 49, and Republicans 51. But the next most likely split is Democrats 48, Republicans 52.

What happened? In a word, Alaska.

Just over a week ago, Dan Sullivan (R) took the lead back from Mark Begich (D). Since that time, as the polls have continued to come in, Dan Sullivan has continued to hold the lead all the way through our most recent polls.

All the other states have been relatively stable over the last week.

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