Friday, October 3, 2014

#Democrats retake the lead in SanityIID U.S. #Senate #polling model

A few days, several new polls, and the Democrats retake the lead. But don't get your hopes up too high. The Democrats lead is so slight that it is practically nonexistent. According to the SanityIID U.S. Senate model, the Democrats have about a 52% chance to retain control of the Senate.

Here is the statistical breakdown:

As you can see, the most probable outcome is for the Democrats to retain 50 seats. Of course, it is important to remember that this model both expects Orman to win Kansas and to caucus with the Democrats. If either of those assumptions prove to be untrue, then the Republicans would hold a substantial, but not insurmountable, lead.

As for the individual races that I am following here at SanityIID:

Rasmussen released a new poll that slightly helps Garner (R) in Colorado. Garner's chances increased from 50.9% to 53.7% This is still a virtual tie, but if this keeps up Garner will move out of the margin of error and have a real lead.

GQR released a new poll for Iowa. This poll helps Braley (D) ever so slightly. Current modeling suggests his lead has increased from 59% to 60.6%. While this latest poll helps us gain confidence in our model, it doesn't significantly change the outcome.

Suffolk/USA Today released a poll for Kansas. This poll favors Orman (I) to win. A note of warning: the SanityIID model is showing a data warning on Kansas. This is caused by their being a lack of polls to gain sufficient confidence in the model. While it is true that the model shows him as the current favorite by a significant margin, the lack of polling makes the margin suspect. I would personally give the lead to Mr. Orman, but it is still so close that anything could happen.

Mellman released a new poll for Kentucky. The poll doesn't significantly change anything as far as the statistics are concerned. The model still shows Mitch McConnell with about the best lead that this model can produce. Mitch McConnell's lead decreased from 94.9% to 93%. The only thing significant about this poll is that it is the first time that Alison Grimes has led Mitch McConnell. This poll by itself isn't significant. Still, if this turns into a trend then there might actually be something to watch over the next month -- if the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee doesn't pull the finding. It's going to be a difficult decision for the Democrats to decide whether money spent on Kentucky is a waste or not. Unfortunately, my model says that it is.

The latest Mitchell Research poll for Michigan shows that Peters (D) maintains his lead. The statistics provided by the SanityIID model show that his lead has increased to a point greater than the model's margin of error. The model shows that he has increased from 97% chance of winning to a 98% chance of winning. Take this with a grain of salt, however, since the model's accuracy is only 95%.

And finally New Hampshire. A new ARG poll in New Hampshire shows that Shaheen (D) is still winning. Even though the poll shows her ahead, the new poll pushed some old data out of the bottom of the queue. This, ironically, had the effect of decreasing her overall odds since the poll that was replaced showed her as doing better than the new ARG poll. The model is still showing her about a 76% chance of winning with increased short and medium term outlooks.

With a month and a day until the election, we can expect things to begin heating up from here.

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