Saturday, October 11, 2014

October 11, 2014 US Senate Race Updated

The "El -- US Senate Race at a Glance" page has been updated. Quick overview? No significant changes since last run.

If you look at the graphs on the overview page, you can see that the model makes an error in a calculation. The error is caused by the latest polling being so stable. Since the short term polling is so stable, that collapses the "normal curve" for the statistics, an error that El doesn't currently account for. The end result is that El shortchanges the Democrats one seat in the state by state tallies. The overall statistics for the other graphs, however, are not in error.

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