Thursday, October 30, 2014

US Senate Update for October 30, 2014

The races are stabilizing according to the El model. Republicans are still quite likely to take control of the Senate after the midterm elections.

Michigan, New Hampshire, and North Carolina are likely to go Democratic.

Kentucky, Louisiana, Iowa, Arkansas, and Georgia are likely to go Republican.

The remaining three states that I have been following are a little bit more erratic and unpredictable. I want to look at Colorado, Kansas, and Alaska a little bit closer.

Colorado has been leaning toward the Republicans for a while now. Recent polls that have been released, however, have had it tilting more toward a tie or even giving Udall (D) a slight lead over Gardner (R). But most of these polls are from Democratic partisans. While I'm not insinuating that the Democrats would purposefully skew the polls in their favor, I would like it better if there were some polls released from neutral or even Republican partisans to balance it out. This is a state that will need to be watched.

Kansas and Alaska, on the other hand, are closer to being actual ties. Their polling seems to have them switching hands quite frequently. Currently Kansas is leaning toward the Independent candidate, Orman; and Alaska is leaning toward the Republican candidate Sullivan (R). Will these slight leads continue to hold through the election or will they change hands yet again?

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