Thursday, October 23, 2014

October 23, 2014 US Senate Update: Bad News for Democrats

The US Senate races seem to have mostly stabilized. This is not good news for the Democrats. Most of the states we are watching have stabilized in favor of the Republicans. While there is still a statistical chance that the Democrats can retain control of the US Senate, the probabilities are looking rather remote.

The statistics are favoring the Republicans heavily. In addition, if Orman wins and caucuses with the Republicans, decrease the Democrat count by one.

Here is how the statistics look from state to state:

I would argue that the mathematical model doesn't show the complete picture in Kansas. Because of Taylor (D) dropping from the race and Roberts (R) and the Republicans pouring money and talent into the state, the recent polls are showing the state in a virtual tie. Combined with the lack of a polling history with only Roberts and Orman (I) on the ticket, and I believe that our model is misleading.

If you are interested in seeing all the latest charts, please go to the "El -- US Senate Race at a Glance" page.

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