Monday, October 27, 2014

Update for October 27, 2014: Statistically, Republican Continue to Gain

The latest run of El shows that the Republicans continue to make slight gains almost across the board. This has the effect of solidifying their lead and increasing the chance that they will hold a majority of US Senate seats even before any potential runoff elections.

One of the few bright points for Democrats might be Alaska. While polls are always difficult to do accurately in Alaska, the recent polling has been showing improvements for Begich (D) in addition to the staggering number of people that his campaign has contacted in person. Putting these two factors together gives the Democrats at least a fighting chance in Alaska. Only time will tell whether Begich's get-out-the-vote plan will provide enough of a boost to counter Sullivan's (R) apparent lead in the polls.

Arkansas seems to be slipping further from the Democrats. Will the recent push by former President Bill Clinton make a difference? Has President Clinton already failed to produce results? While it is always possible for people – especially the undecided – to change their minds at the last minute, it looks more like anyone not already firmly supporting Pryor (D) is leaning toward Cotton (R).

Recent polling shows Colorado and, surprisingly, Georgia to be very volatile. There isn't enough stability in the polls for El to predict which candidate is actually leading. The short term predictions show that Udall (D) has at least tied Gardner (R) in Colorado, but we will have to see whether this is a polling anomaly or whether this is the start of a last minute movement. The long term predictions are still showing in Gardner's (R) favor. As for Georgia, it is trending in the opposite direction. In Georgia, the short term is trending in Perdue's (R) favor.

Iowa remains very close, but despite this closeness, Ernst (R) continues to maintain a lead even if it is by the closest of margins. While there is one recent poll that shows Braley (D) in a tie race, all the other recent polls are still pointing in Ernst's direction.

Kansas is finally showing more what I would expect. El's long term prediction shows that the race is now a tossup between Roberts (R) and Orman (I). Since the Republicans have increased their funding and the expertise of their personnel in Kansas after the strong showing of Orman, we will have to see whether the polls continue their trend past the even mark and toward a Roberts lead.

Kentucky? Almost assuredly Republican. Recent polls are showing McConnell at the greatest possibility to win that El will provide.

Louisiana? Most likely Republican as well. What will matter as far as Louisiana goes is whether Cassidy (R) can gain enough votes to avoid a runoff election with Landrieu (D).

Michigan and New Hampshire both look like wins for the Democrats. In Michigan, El gives Peters (D) a 95% chance of winning; that's the largest chance that the model will predict. And while not quite as good in New Hampshire, El gives a solid prediction of victory to Shaheen (D).

As for North Carolina, El still gives the race to Hagan (D) over Tillis (R) despite the recent close polling numbers by Tillis. The margin is just enough in Hagan's favor for El not to consider the race a tie from a numerical perspective.

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